New investment
Before capital follows the plan.
Examine whether to invest, what evidence is still missing, and which conditions the investment thesis requires.
Conditional Underwriting
The forecast is one possible
future. Underwrite
what
must be true for it to
happen.
A plan can be coherent, carefully built, and still describe only one path. Brenwick makes the uncertainty around that path explicit, so the investor can examine the range and the conditions it implies.
Figure 1
Conditional underwriting
One path among many
Monthly revenue, € thousands · one line per simulated future
underwrite what must be true.
brenwick
Figure 1 - One possible path
Future fan chart: founder forecast against the plausible paths implied by the model.
SPECIMEN · Demo companyThe first question is not whether the forecast is right. It is where that forecast sits among the outcomes its own assumptions allow.
The range
A range turns the forecast
into a claim you can
examine.
Brenwick rebuilds the plan with explicit uncertainty and runs the company across 1,000 plausible futures.
The result is not a replacement forecast. It is a reading of where the plan sits, how wide the outcome range is, and which downside the single line leaves invisible.
“We already discount forecasts.”
The first question is not whether the forecast is right. It is where that forecast sits among the outcomes its own assumptions allow.
Exhibit 1
The range
Where the forecast sits
The plan sits in the right tail of its own model
Terminal revenue · 1,000 runs
underwrite what must be true.
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Exhibit 1 - The outcome range
Future distribution exhibit with the founder's claim and central outcome marked.
SPECIMEN · Demo companyThe range tells you how exposed the investment case is. The next question is what it is exposed to.
The dependencies
The outcome matters. What
the outcome depends on
is
what you underwrite.
Brenwick identifies the assumptions that most clearly separate good futures from bad ones.
Those are the questions diligence should press hardest: the customer that must sign, the funding date that cannot slip, or the hire whose timing the cash plan cannot absorb. The useful answer is not only a risk percentage. It is a short list of conditions carrying the investment case.
“The founder already gave us a model.”
That model is the claim under examination. Its inputs become useful when their uncertainty and influence are made explicit.
Exhibit 2
The dependencies
What the case depends on
Share of outcome variance explained
Share of outcome variance explained
-
Sales cycle under 90 days
31% -
Enterprise contract signs by Q2 27
22% -
Series B closes on schedule
15% -
Net revenue retention holds at 108%
11% -
Second AE hired before Nov 26
7% -
Gross margin holds above 71%
5%
Observational effect · sales cycle
Observational effect · sales cycle
underwrite what must be true.
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Exhibit 2 - Load-bearing assumptions
Future ranked-driver exhibit followed by one observational effect curve.
SPECIMEN · Demo companyA dependency is a place to investigate. Before calling it a response, we test whether changing it still matters when the surrounding future stays the same.
The decision test
A driver can travel with bad
outcomes without
causing
them. We test the difference.
For assumptions that could change the decision, Brenwick tests realistic alternatives against the same uncertain background.
The result shows whether an apparent driver survives intervention, where it helps, and where another dependency still dominates. When existing simulation cohorts already isolate the change reliably, we use them. Where dependence, sparse cohorts, or an exact decision would distort that reading, we compare paired model runs.
Exhibit 3
The decision test
Whether changing it changes the odds
Effect on the modelled odds
Paired runs · baseline vs modified
underwrite what must be true.
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Exhibit 3 - Decision test
Future paired observational and counterfactual reading, shown only when decision-relevant.
SPECIMEN · Demo companyCalculation can expose the consequence. Judgment is still required to choose the test, ground the assumptions, and decide what the result means.
Independent judgment
The model is the instrument.
The opinion is
human.
Brenwick works through the assumptions in working sessions with the founding team, tests the dependencies that matter, and signs an independent reading for the investor.
We challenge and re-estimate key assumptions using available evidence, benchmarks where available, and explicit uncertainty ranges. If there is no usable model, we reconstruct the relevant mechanics from the deck and the sessions. If the team will not participate, we decline the engagement.
- 01 Deconstruct the plan into its economic drivers
- 02 Ground the key assumptions with the founding team.
- 03 Simulate the plausible outcome range.
- 04 Diagnose the load-bearing dependencies.
- 05 Test and sign the decision-relevant alternatives and opinion.
“Why trust your assumptions?”
You do not have to. The assumptions, ranges, and evidence are explicit enough to challenge.
“Will this damage the founder relationship?”
The examination concerns the plan and its assumptions, not the founder's character. The working sessions give the team a sharper model as well.
Every engagement is led and signed by Henning Lategahn.
When to use Brenwick
Use it when a company
plan becomes
consequential.
Brenwick examines the company whose assumptions matter now. Repeat use means a series of bounded examinations, not continuous portfolio monitoring.
Bring the company and the decision. We will identify what must be true.
Existing portfolio
Before the company is underwritten again.
Use a point-in-time examination before a follow-on, bridge, reserve allocation, material plan reset, or board decision tied to the forecast.
The bounded engagement
One company. One examination.
One signed
opinion.
Brenwick examines the company whose assumptions matter now. Repeat use means a series of bounded examinations, not continuous portfolio monitoring.
We take at most two engagements at a time. Our fee is fixed at engagement start and owed on delivery, whatever the report says. The engagement ends with the report.
“Will this slow the deal?”
No. The delivery window sits inside a standard diligence process, and the quoted clock is protected by the two-engagement capacity limit.
Brenwick examines the company whose assumptions matter now. Repeat use means a series of bounded examinations, not continuous portfolio monitoring.
We take at most two engagements at a time. Our fee is fixed at engagement start and owed on delivery, whatever the report says. The engagement ends with the report.
No newsletter, list, or phone field. Prefer email?
Contact Brenwick.
The sample report
The model as pitched,
and the same model
examined.
The pair contains a forecast report and a forensic report for the demo company: the plausible range, ranked dependencies, decision tests, and named conditions carrying the case. Inspect the deliverable before any engagement.